As we point out in Chapter 5 (and in Figure 2.5) every product has a life cycle, an important issue for operations managers, especially in this time of pandemic flux. And so it appears that The Queen of the Skies-the iconic Boeing 747– is approaching her abdication. British Airway (the 747’s biggest operator) just announced that its 31 747s will never fly again. Its immediate retirement of its 747s marks the demise of the jumbo plane’s 50-year reign, with similar decisions by Delta, United and Air France, reports Financial Times (July 27, 2020). The last 747 in the Qantas fleet recently flew to its final resting place in the Mojave Desert.
The A380 superjumbo jet’s life cycle was much briefer. Just 13 years after the first A380 flight by Singapore Airlines, Airbus is ceasing production. Flying, as it slowly recovers after Covid-19, looks like being smaller, nimbler and point-to-point, rather than in huge aircraft collecting passengers at hub airports. The long-haul planes of the future are the 248-336 seat Boeing 787 and the 350-410 seat Airbus A350.
It was also a Chapter 4 forecasting issue, as Airbus got flying’s economics wrong. In 1999, Boeing and Airbus sparred over how many super-large aircraft the market could support. Boeing said fewer than 400 would be needed by 2019. Airbus said nearly 1,500–but sold only 242. Boeing’s 747 prospered through the decades of explosive growth in airline travel, from 310 million passengers in 1970 to 4.5 billion last year. The 747’s best years are now gone, though it has timed its retirement perfectly.
To make matters worse for Boeing and Airbus, they are still making the smaller planes that airlines aren’t collecting, straining their finances, adds The Wall Street Journal (July 27, 2020). Airlines don’t want the aircraft for now, because they are unable to fill them profitably during a historic plunge in demand for flying. The result: finished airplanes with nowhere to fly, and less cash for Boeing, Airbus and their suppliers as they slash production and payrolls. “Clearly, we’re in a situation where we don’t need any aircraft,” said Delta’s CEO.
Classroom discussion questions:
- What should Boeing’s OM strategy be at this point?
- Why was Airbus’ A380 forecast so inaccurate?