Copper is the new lithium, writes The Wall Street Journal (April 19, 2023). But a lack of new mining activity has added to worries that there won’t be enough of the red metal for the energy transition to electric vehicles.
Copper is used in wiring and construction as well as EVs, solar panels and other green technologies. Electrification is expected to increase annual copper demand to over 36 million metric tons by 2031, with supply forecast to be around 30 million tons, creating at least a 6 million ton shortfall at the start of the next decade. In 2021, refined copper demand stood at 25 million tons.
South America currently dominates copper production and Chile is the largest mined producer. Increasing mine output has proved a challenge, warning of a serious supply shortfall over the next decade. Some projects are coming online in Peru and in Chile, which will add incremental supply, but there is little in terms of pipeline for the long run. Copper metal exports from Congo and Zambia, the two other sources, totaled 2.3 million tons in 2022, up slightly from 2021, but less than half of Chile’s output.
“There’s a narrative around resource scarcity and the green transition with EVs and renewables as well as the build-out of electricity grids. On paper it’s quite a substantial supply gap opening up over the next 10 years,” says an industry expert. And there is no slack in the system.
“Green” uses of copper now account for about 4% of consumption, but this is expected to rise to 17% by 2030. A “net-zero emissions” path would mean the world would need an additional 54% of copper by 2030 on top of that forecast. EVs cannot take off before the charging infrastructure is set, and the necessary electrification is very copper intensive. Copper features heavily in energy transition proposals.
Sales of electric cars in 2022 in creased 55% over 2021 to bring the total number of EVs in the world to around 26 million. That means the EV-charging ecosystem will have to be significantly ramped up.
Classroom discussion questions:
- Why is this an OM issue?
- What might be done to solve the problem?