Grounded Boeing 737 Max airplanes are stored in an area adjacent to Boeing Field in Seattle
The extended grounding of Boeing Co.’s 737 Max planes forced airlines across the globe to scale back growth plans for next summer, putting the airline industry on notice that the crisis is starting to affect longer-term plans. With a return date for the Max still uncertain after two fatal crashes, one airline, the Irish carrier Ryanair, will receive barely half of the 58 planes it was expecting for the 2020 peak schedule. Ryanair estimates that the reduction will wipe 5 million passengers from its full-year tally.
Although U.S. operators of the Max haven’t yet talked about changing their growth plans beyond this year or readjusted deliveries, it will probably take 15 to 18 months for the carriers to catch up to their original schedules, writes The Los Angeles Times (July 16, 2019). (The timing depends on Boeing resuming its original delivery schedule, after slowing Max production rates to 42 from 57 aircraft a month). American Airlines and United Airlines just pulled the Max off their schedules through early November, in the latest sign the jet may not resume commercial service this year. Carriers will probably limit the expansion of the seat supply until late next year. Capacity growth will likely remain muted until the end of 2020 so that the first ‘normal’ year for capacity growth will be 2021.
Aviation regulators grounded the newest 737 after two crashes killed 346 people. In June, the FAA disclosed a separate software glitch it had found during simulator testing. That issue requires additional work by Boeing and is further delaying the Max’s return to service.
Classroom discussion questions:
- How can airlines forecast available capacity in a unique situation like this?
- What options do airlines have when planes are not delivered as planned or taken out of service?