Professor Misty Blessley at Temple U. looks at the “No- Buy” movement.
Thanksgiving is just 3 months away, and Christmas only 4, but the holidays are long upon retail supply chains. At the same time, a growing number of consumers are pushing back against the pressure to spend, embracing a movement known as “No-Buy 2025,” which is gaining serious traction.
At its core the movement is a consumer mindset focused on refraining from non-essential purchases for a set period, for some an entire year. Trending on online communities are people sharing their No-Buy challenges and success stories. Some are motivated to cut debt or save for long-term goals, while others are concerned with sustainability, minimalism, or anti- consumption values. Participation is surging, especially among millennials and Gen Zs, who are juggling inflation, student debt, and climate anxiety.
Baby boomers, in contrast, are known to possess a large portion of total disposable income and to spend on luxury and leisure items. Participants are cutting back on categories often linked to impulse spending or excess and are instead using what they have:
Apparel and accessories
Home décor and seasonal items
Beauty and skincare
Toys and impulse gifts
Functioning electronics
Why It Matters for Supply Chains
No-Buy 2025 has a ripple effect on retail supply chains. The holiday season typically drives massive retail volume, but with intentional non-buying, companies could face missed orders if underestimating demand or excess inventory if forecasts are too high.
Many demand forecasts rely on past trends, but for some generational cohorts demand is eliminated or potentially delayed. Retailers may need to reconsider their demand planning models, where inventory is held in the network, and be aware of consumer behavior (e.g., generational preferences, while remembering that generalizations are, by nature, generalizations). Supply chains that account for today’s values will be best positioned to respond.
Classroom discussion questions:
1. What are the shortcomings with traditional time-series and seasonality forecasting methodologies given the no-buy movement?
2. Do you think the product categories identified above should be forecasted differently when compared to one another? Why?
3. How does the purchasing power of various generational cohorts come into play?
Note: The Silent Generation (born 1928-1945), Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964), Generation X (born 1965-1980), Millennials (born 1981-1996), Generation Z (born 1997-2012), and Generation Alpha (born 2013-2024).