OM in the News: New York City’s Inventory Bust

Just last week we posted a blog by Howard Weiss that dealt with “stockpiling.” Now comes a surprising revelation on how New York City’s then mayor Bill de Blasio stockpiled over $225 million in pandemic-related supplies that are now almost worthless.

Since last summer, the city has systematically tried to auction off millions of dollars worth of Covid-related personal protective equipment (PPE)  and medical supplies — gowns, face shields, hand sanitizer, KN95 masks, N95 masks — that it decided are no longer needed. Many of these supplies remain in their original packaging and are brand-new. About 9.5 million items purchased by NYC for $224 million  have been auctioned so far, garnering about $1/2 million, reports THE CITY (a NY weekly on Feb.21, 2023) .

A top NYC official fretted in July 2022 that if the public learned about the auctions, it would prompt an inquiry “about the city’s over-buying during Covid,” an email reveals. So officials “crafted talking points to address why the city is auctioning off PPE while Covid cases continue to persist.”

Here are a few examples:

Taxpayers paid $12 million for 3,000 “bridge vent” breathing devices. The devices were unloaded, unused, in an auction described as “non-functioning medical equipment sold as scrap metal.” A junk dealer picked up the entire $12 million, 500,000-pound load — for only $24,600.  It took 28 truckloads to cart the stuff away.

In many cases, the city paid wildly inflated prices. One company sold the city 50,000 face shields at $6.70 per shield when the average open market price was $3.67. So taxpayers paid $335,000 for items that on average should have cost $183,500. This month, the city put up for auction a lot containing 701,100 face shields, with an opening bid of $1,000. That’s less than one penny per shield.

Huge discounts were also available for isolation gowns. NYC has been trying to sell off millions of these — still packed in their original boxes — for a tiny fraction of what taxpayers paid for them. Last month it offered a lot of 97,850 of their gowns for $1,000. It got zero bids and put the same lot up again last week, dropping the opening price to $280.

As of last week, taxpayers had shelled out $17.8 million for warehousing 13,500 pallets of these stacked medical goods. A city official recommended more aggressive marketing of auctions, lowering starting bids, breaking lots into smaller purchases, and giving some of the stuff away “in parks, subway stations.” And one other option: “destroying whatever can’t be auctioned.”

Classroom discussion questions:

  1. Evaluate this inventory situation.
  2. How would you resolve the problem?

 

Teaching Tip: NYC’s Potholes and Regression Analysis

potholeNew York is famous for many things, but one it does not like to be known for is its large and numerous potholes. David Letterman used to joke: “There is a pothole so big on 8th Avenue, it has its own Starbucks in it.” When it comes to potholes, some years seem to be worse than others. This winter was an exceptionally bad year. City workers filled a record 300,000 potholes during the first 4 months of 2014. That’s an astounding accomplishment.

But potholes are to some extent a measure of municipal competence–and are costly in many ways. NYC’s poor streets cost the average motorist an estimated $800 per year in repair work and new tires. There has been a steady and dramatic increase in potholes from around 70,000- 80,000 in the 1990s to the devastatingly high 200,000- 300,000 range in the most recent years. One theory is that bad weather causes the potholes, writes OR/MS Today (June, 2014). Using inches of snowfall as a measure of the severity of the winter, the graph on the left shows a plot of the number of potholes vs. the inches of snow each winter. (R-squared = .32).Pothole-analytics

Research showed that the city would need to resurface at least 1,000 miles of roads per year just to stay even with road deterioration. Any amount below that would contribute to a “gap” or backlog of streets needing repair. The right-side graph shows the plot of potholes vs. the gap. With an R-squared of .81, there is a very strong relationship between the increase in the “gap” and the number of potholes. It is obvious that the real reason for the steady and substantial increase in the number of potholes is due to the increasing gap in road resurfacing.Pothole-analytics2

A third model performs a regression analysis using the resurfacing gap and inches of snow as 2 independent variables and number of potholes as the dependent variable. That regression model’s R squared is .91.

Potholes = 7801.5 + 80.6 * Resurfacing Gap + 930.1 * Inches of Snow

We are always looking for real-world, down-to-earth examples of forecasting models to share with classes. This may do the job!