Initial supplies of any successful coronavirus vaccines are now expected to fall short of what is needed even for high-priority groups like health-care workers, forcing drugmakers and U.S. officials to grapple with the thorny question of who should be first in line. Public-health officials estimate more than 100 million Americans, including doctors and nurses, other essential workers and nursing-home residents, should get vaccinated before the general public.
There may be 10 million to 20 million doses available at first. The limited initial reserve is forcing U.S. health officials and their advisers to make hard choices about who should get vaccinated first. It could mean prioritizing staff at hospital emergency departments and intensive-care units over health-care workers who have less interaction with the sickest patients. But if a vaccine is shown to be protective in the elderly, they may end up getting high priority because older people are at higher risk of severe disease. Officials are also weighing how high to prioritize people who work outside of health care but in important jobs like those in the food supply chain.
Companies working on vaccines say they are ramping up manufacturing to eventually produce hundreds of millions of doses, but that bigger supply is unlikely to kick in until next year. The most difficult allocation decisions will be in the first 6-9 months of vaccine availability, but then supplies should begin to catch up to the broader population.
Classroom discussion questions:
- From a business perspective, who should receive early vaccinations?
- From an ethical perspective, who should be vaccinated first?