Tag: earthquakes

OM in the News: Planning for Japan’s Next Earthquake–The Really Big One

earthquakeA huge earthquake in the Japan’s industrial heartland — costing as much as 40% of GDP and disrupting supply chains at companies such as Toyota — is seen as inevitable, reports The Financial Times (May 19, 2016). Understanding the risk and reducing damage is critical (as we discuss in Supplement 11). The recent magnitude 7.3 earthquake in Kyushu, which killed 49 and destroyed thousands of homes, is a reminder that Japan remains exposed to frequent natural disasters. But a big earthquake directly below Tokyo, in the Nankai Trough, would be an economic shock of global significance. The government puts the odds of a magnitude 8.0-plus Tokyo earthquake at 50% in the next 20 years, 70% in the next 30 years and 90% in the next 50!

A Tokyo region earthquake could be more devastating than the one in 2011 at Tohoku, which left 18,800 dead, thousands homeless and crippled the Fukushima nuclear facility. The global impact of the Tohoku earthquake surprised many. Car plants as far afield as Louisiana and Ohio had to halt production for a lack of parts, from microcontrollers to paint.

Yet Tohoku is on the periphery. Tokyo is a manufacturing heartland, a link in some of the world’s most important supply chains. Fanuc, the world’s leading maker of industrial robots, is based in the region, as are 1/2 the world’s musical instruments (manufactured by Yamaha and Roland), and 1/3 of the world’s Nand Flash memory (by Toshiba), built into every smartphone. But even in this region, two supply chains stand out: it is home to Toyota (which makes 1.6 million vehicles a year there) and to most of Boeing’s Japanese suppliers (which make the 777 and 787 fuselages).

Japanese business learned a lot from the Tohoku disaster. Companies changed their supply chain systems to increase redundancy and have extensive continuity plans. However, even if Toyota’s own plants managed to restart quickly, they are only as resilient as their weakest subcontractors and the regional infrastructure of roadway, ports, and airports.

Classroom discussion questions:

  1. What can firms like Boeing do to protect their fuselage supply chain?
  2. What models in Supplement 11 can be used to deal with this problem?

OM in the News: Earthquakes, Japan, and the Global Supply Chain

It is much too early to predict how soon Japan will recover from the terrible devastation of last week’s earthquakes and tsunami. Your students, though, are aware of the situation on the ground and the implications for global commerce and manufacturing, so this is a topic worth discussing in class.

Various newspapers have taken differing views on how the devastation will affect the global economy. Today’s Wall Street Journal (March 14, 2011) comes right out and asks the question: “Are global supply chains so taut that a disruption in the world’s No. 3 economy will be felt around the world?” Their answer: Japan’s factories play an out-size role in global production , ranging from a fifth of the world’s semiconductors to advanced machine tools. The result could be shortages of key components around the world. For eaxample, Reneses Electronics is the world’s largest maker of micro controllers for cars and other equipment. In suffering major damage, it places customers at risk. Its chips are key ingredients and its inventory is not stockpiled nor readily replaced,  employing the JIT concept. And most auto makers use only 1-2 suppliers for parts.

Likewise, today’s New York Times writes: “Most high-tech goods these days are produced through carefully orchestrated procurement and manufacturing networks that combine parts from around the globe, often shipped on tight daily production schedules. Even temporary shortages can drive up prices sharply.”

Forty percent of chips for smartphones and tablet computers  and most LCDs for appliances are also made in Japan. Further, Sony’s Blu-ray disc and magnetic tape factories were flooded. And with rolling blackouts twice a day to conserve power, most manufacturers are unable to operate expensive machinery that requires stable energy.  Toyota, Nissan, and Honda are not even sure the logistics are available to get their cars to ports for shipping.

Discussion questions:

1. Discuss the importance of having manufacturing facilities around the world?

2. How are Japanese automakers impacted with respect to US sales?