- Geopolitical fragmentation and the strategic use of trade regulations.
- Extreme weather intensification.
- Critical infrastructure aging and failure.
- Cyberattacks on logistics.
Geopolitical fragmentation and the strategic use of trade regulations, ranked as the most notable risk for 2026 supply chains, giving it a “threat level” score of 97%. Abrupt geopolitical shifts have the potential to upend political alliances, alter trade relationships, create regional uncertainties and disrupt logistics networks.
In addition, rapid tariff and policy adjustments have become the new normal for supply chain management. From 2023 to 2025, export controls that caused severe disruptions doubled, and other trade restrictions increased 167%.
The next risk, extreme weather intensification, was given a “threat level” score of 93%. As the frequency and severity of these weather events continues to climb, firms are encouraged to advance climate modeling for procurement, supply chain and logistics operations. They should also prioritize geographic diversification, increased inventory buffers and flexible logistics networks that can rapidly reroute around weather-impacted areas..
Third, critical infrastructure aging and failure, received a “threat level” score of 81%. Compromised infrastructure and transportation networks, combined with the previous risk of extreme weather, pose a real threat to supply chain operations. The Infrastructure Moment report by McKinsey & Company estimates that $106 trillion in investments, including $36 trillion for transport and logistics, will be needed to meet the need for updated infrastructure through 2040.
It is predicted that at least one multibillion dollar disruption because of failing infrastructure will occur this year. This implies that supply chain managers must develop comprehensive infrastructure risk assessments that go beyond their immediate suppliers to include the broader transportation and utility networks their operations depend on.
Lastly, cyberattacks on logistics sits at a “threat level” of 70%. Between 2021 and 2025, there was a 965% increase in attacks on logistics operations. It is projected that cyberattacks on logistics operations will double this year. The five industries that experienced the most cyberattacks last year are: Manufacturing, Electronics, Automotive, Food & Beverage, and Logistics.
Classroom discussion questions:
- Compare these threats to supply chains to the ten discussed in Table 11.4 (page 474) in your Heizer/Render/Munson text. Which match?
- Why do you think geopolitical issues is ranked first in this study?