OM in the News: Geopolitics and Supply Chains

“Supply chain managers today are thinking more about geopolitical risk than they are about any other risk,” writes The Wall Street Journal (May 3, 2024).

The Rubymar, a bulk carrier hit in a Houthi missile attack, sank in the Red Sea in March

Companies’ top supply chain concerns until recently were how to find a reliable source for products at the lowest cost. That led many to China with its cheap labor and unparalleled ecosystem of factories, parts suppliers and raw materials. Now many firms are prioritizing a supply chain that reduces their reliance on a single country or region.

Some of the changes were spurred by the Covid factory shutdowns in China and soaring prices for ocean shipping. The changes are being accelerated by more recent geopolitical shocks as countries such as China, Russia and Iran face off against the West.

The U.S. has also raised national security concerns about its dependence on China for technologies such as semiconductors that are key to computers, electric vehicles, robots and other goods. It has banned the export of some chips to China and is stimulating domestic manufacturing of chips with incentives for new factories that limit the use of raw materials from China. These new rules, regulations and tariffs complicate trade compliance efforts, especially for larger companies that sit atop a supply chain that can include hundreds of thousands of suppliers.

Companies are having to dig deeper into their supplier networks to identify raw materials and components that could be subject to steep tariff hikes or that could violate a growing number of regulations targeting countries such as Russia and China. VW was surprised when thousands of its Audi, Porsche, Bentley and Lamborghinis were recently held up at U.S. seaports. The cars contained a magnetic component sourced from a sub-supplier blacklisted because it is in China’s Xinjiang region, suspected of using Uyghur forced labor. “We really try, but this shows how challenging it is to really know everything that is happening in complex supply chains,” said  VW.

Multinational companies cannot easily disentangle themselves from geopolitical risks. Russia is one of the world’s largest suppliers of metals such as aluminum, nickel and copper. China supplies about 75% of the rare-earths minerals that go into U.S. semiconductors.

Classroom discussion questions:

  1. Why is it difficult for manufacturers to know details about their supply chains?
  2. How does Table 11.3 in your Heizer/Render/Munson text relate to VW’s problem?

OM in the News: China’s Four ‘Ds’ and Nearshoring

China’s  seemingly unstoppable growth model proved less sustainable than originally thought. The 4D’s—demographics, debt, drought and decoupling—weigh heavily on China’s economy, writes IndustryWeek (April 25, 2024) .

Demographics: China’s population is shrinking. Birthrates are falling and its population is aging. China’s labor shortages and rising wages are driving some U.S. companies to reevaluate manufacturing or sourcing in China, as Chinese exports become less competitive.

Debt: As exports decrease, Beijing bolsters the economy by pumping money into the system with investments from state banks and local governments. . According to the World Bank, “No country in history has amassed so much debt so quickly as China has without succumbing to a financial meltdown.”

Drought: Water scarcity is threatening China’s industrial base. Retreating glaciers, disappearing ice cover, increasing temperatures and China’s unequal water distribution are contributing to its water shortage crisis. Eighty percent of China’s water is concentrated in South China, even though the nucleus of its national development is in the north.

Decoupling: These 3D’s plus geopolitical risk are driving the 4th D. The perception that investing in and sourcing from China was risky business suppressed foreign direct investment (FDI), an important driver of China’s economy. FDI into China plummeted 82% in 2023, to $33 billion, the lowest figure since 1993.

Foreign companies’ worries include a wave of raids, investigations and detentions and an expanded anti-espionage law. By late 2022 countries worldwide had lifted COVID restrictions, but China persisted and the Chinese economy began to lose ground through 2022. To mitigate supply chain risk, multinational companies reconfigured supply chain strategies, choosing localization, China +1 or an “anywhere but China” policy to reduce over-reliance on uncertain Chinese policy. Chief Executive magazine’s 2023 survey confirmed that “geopolitical risk exposure” is the most highly ranked of the “main drivers for reshoring operations.”

Finally, China creates the most emissions—12.7 billion metric tons of emissions annually—due to its reliance on coal. For many products, emissions from production and shipment from China to the U.S. are 25% higher than sourcing domestically.

Classroom discussion questions:

  1. Are the 4D’s enough to make manufacturers nearshore?
  2. What is china’s main strength as an exporter?