It’s hard to motivate students about how important forecasting is in OM with common examples like IBM’s stock price, Dell sales,
or housing starts. So in Ch.4 we have two tools to help set the stage. The first is the Global Company Profile featuring Disney World. Disney does detailed daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and 5-year forecasts of park attendance, with a staff of 35 analyzing a whole flock of interesting variables. The second tool is the 8-min. video case study we created on how Hard Rock Cafe uses forecasting.
Students like the Hard Rock video not only because the company is “cool”, but because the applications of moving averages and regression are clever and thoughtful. For example, multiple regression is used to estimate the price elasticity of each menu item. Hard Rock is able to estimate the impact of a $1 price increase of cheeseburgers on sales of chicken sandwiches and margaritas.
The weighted moving average technique is used to set sales and bonus targets for store managers. The company also uses exponential smoothing and other models to forecast daily sales/food needs, purchasing needs, and borrowing needs. A good lead-in to the video is to ask students what they think Hard Rock needs to forecast with mathematical models.