Category: Supplement 7

Content related to supplement 7

Teaching Tip: Computing Break-Even for an Airline Flight

 At what price does an airline break-even when it sells you a ticket to fly from Point A to Point B? It’s an interesting question and makes a good example for covering break-even in Supp.7 (see Figure S7.5).

Fortune  (March 23,2011) just provided an excellent analysis, along with an interactive pie chart that allows you to alter the price of fuel. It takes Delta’s flight from Los Angeles to La Guardia (NY), with a brief layover in Detroit, as its basis. With the average price of a one-way ticket (including 1st class) on this particular flight of $506, Delta was making a $33 profit per ticket in 2010. When fuel was pre-Mideast instability  jitters just a few months ago, $98 of the cost was in that one item, the largest of all costs incurred.

Today, the profit is down to $4! Fortune makes the point that if you fly coach on a competitive route, the carrier is probably in the red. (Hello baggage, pillow, and food fees).

Here is the cost breakdown: Labor ,$95; Plane rent/ownership, $26; Non-plane rents,$17; Nonemployee labor, $32; Payments to partners, $54; Interest, $12; Taxes/fees, $75; Other/misc., $63.

As the flight begins, with a 23 min. boarding time and a 24 min. taxi to the runway, Delta has already spent over $1,000 in labor, fuel, and maintenance. Flying to the layover in Detroit costs $11,674, and getting to the gate another $309.

I think using the interactive fuel price graph makes a point that any flying student will appreciate.

OM in the News: Matching Supply (of seats) with Demand at Delta Air Lines

Have you ever been bumped from a flight that was over capacity? It’s a drama that plays out at departure gates every day in airports around the world. Typically, gate agents on overbooked flights embark on last-minute negotiations with passengers who might be willing to take a later plane. The agents broadcast their offers– vouchers worth $200-$400–and keep ratcheting up the price until enough passengers accept. Customers involuntarily bumped get an $800 voucher ( which the Transportation Dept. is proposing to raise to $1,300).

With 541,000 US passengers bumped in the 1st 9 months of 2010 (53,000 involuntarily), there must be a better way to manage capacity (Supp.7) and manage revenue (Ch.13). According to today’s Wall Street Journal (Jan.14,2011),  Delta Air Lines thinks it has the answer.

Delta’s high-tech new system (opened last month) asks passengers who check in online or at kiosks before going through security, what dollar amount they would accept to be bumped from their (overbooked) flight. Delta can then accept the lowest bids, eliminating a lot of uncertainty early. Not only does this give Delta a negotiating edge–passengers won’t know how low others are willing to go. But, in addition, “saving 3 or 4 minutes at the gate has a big operational impact”, according to Delta.  Delta calls it a “win-win” for both consumers and the airline.

Is this good customer service–or do any one of us even expect customer service when we fly? The topic fits well when discussing capacity and yield management issues in both Supp.7 and Ch.13. Given that 8-10% of passengers with reservations do not show for their flights, what other suggestions do students have?

Discussion questions:

1. Which system is better–Delta’s or its competitors?

2. What options do airlines have for capacity and demand?

Teaching Tip: Queuing Up at Disney on Thanksgiving

Having lived in the Orlando area for over 2 decades, everyone assumes my family and I are regular visitors to the Magic Kingdom and the 5 other  Disney World properties here. After all, Disney World is a powerhouse,with over 62,000 local employees (called “cast members”)  and 48 million visitors last year. So when they find I have yet to take my 13 year old son to the Magic Kingdom, I appear to be some sort of ogre. (To my defense, my kids have been to Universal, Sea World, Wet n’ Wild, Blizzard Beach, Animal Kingdom, and on and on). To overcome this pressure, we all went to Disney today, Thanksgiving, 2010.

Here is what we learned. Thanksgiving is one of the  busiest days of the year. And Disney has a clear plan for dealing with this capacity situation (Supp.7): All free passes are cancelled, all cast members are called in, extra parades are scheduled, more refreshment booths are opened, and hours are extended…the Park didn’t close till 1am!

But the queues–oh the queues! Where else would a rational family of 4 pay $340 in entrance fees, $12 to park, and $50 for water and ice cream, only to wait in a series of 45 minute lines for 5 or 6 rides and shows…and then walk away happy as can be?

Here is the secret to the psychology of queuing theory…something Disney’s flock of Ph.D.s in OR and IE have mastered: (1) Keep your customers informed of how long each queue will take,with signs posted frequently…and overestimate, don’t underestimate. (2) Entertain them while they wait, with videos, music, and cartoon characters. (3) Keep the lines moving so progress seems to be taking place. And (4), make people walk long distances between the most popular features, with plenty of interesting activities en route.

I hope this leads to some useful class discussions about how how queues can be managed. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Video Tip: Capacity Planning at Arnold Palmer Hospital

This is the 3rd  blog I am making about the series of 7 Arnold Palmer Hospital  video cases we filmed a few years ago. The 1st two were: The Quality of Culture (10/13/10) and Flowcharting Processes (11/2/10). If you plan to teach either Supp. 7, Capacity and Constraint Management, or Chapter 4, Forecasting, you may want to show this third  film (8.5 min.) and assign the accompanying case study.

I like this video because there just aren’t many videos available on the subject and  because this is such an interesting scenario. When the hospital decided to expand some years ago, it had already far exceeded its capacity. It had tried everything to increase throughput, including moving certain surgical procedures to a sister facility a mile away, having staff drive patients home as soon as they were ready for discharge….anything to free up a bed in a more timely manner.

When all else failed, the new building plan was put in place, but the issue of capacity planning continued. This time it was whether to build for forecast demand,  or actual demand. Using  Figure S7.6, the hospital used a lead stategy which allowed for major portions of the new building to be left in concrete shell form until a build-out was needed.

Although annual births had been on a constant increase for 15 some years, this turned out to be a good choice for capacity planning. As you may know, the economy in Central Florida (Orlando) has absolutely tanked, with less newcomers, and less births, in the area than was ever expected.

I usually present this video case when I teach Forecasting, as it presents an excellent integration of the topics of trend projection/regression analysis and capacity.

OM in the News: Airlines and the Capacity Issue

Because of my early career experience in the aerospace industry (design team for McDonnell Douglas’ DC-10, then the engine for that jet at GE), I have always followed the airline industry closely. Capacity issues have haunted airlines for 6 decades now, going back all the way to 1942, when demand plummeted during that recession. Buying planes is a long term decision, but difficulties after 9-11 and during our current trying times created dramatic drops in demand for seats. This is a great classroom example when you are teaching Capacity in Supp.7.

How do airlines respond? As today’s New York Times reports, airlines trim capacity by grounding planes, reducing the number of flights between cities, and flying smaller planes. At the nation’s largest parking lot near the California Mojave Desert, some 200 aircraft of all sizes (from A320s to 747s) sit tip to wing tip. The dry air keeps the planes from rust and corrosion. Students will enjoy the photo in Supp. 7 showing this image.

The cost, up to $60,000 per month per plane. But the 7% cut in capacity last year  helped raise ticket prices modestly.  Airlines now fly at 80%  of seat capacity, a full 10% higher than their traditional measure.

With the mergers of Delta with Northwest, United with Continental,  Midwest with Frontier, and Southwest with AirTran, there is little growth in demand for more jets forecast in the US. Only 38 wide body planes are on order for delivery in this country by 2015. By contrast, 627 are going to be delivered to foreign carriers during that same 5 year period.

Discussion questions:

1. Why are airlines willing to spend enormous sums to park their planes in the desert?

2. Who can benefit from airline overcapacity?

3. The new Boeing 787 Dreamliner has run into such bad supply chain problems (Ch.11) that it is now 2 years late. How does this impact the airlines that ordered them?