Tag: project mangaement

OM in the News: Disney World’s Start and Project Management

When Disneyland in Los Angeles opened in 1955, it was, in many ways, a disaster, writes The Wall Street Journal (Jan,6-7, 2024). There were rides out of service, restaurants that ran out of food, soft asphalt that consumed the heels of women’s shoes—all of it broadcast on national TV. Little wonder, then, that there was trepidation as the Walt Disney company approached the 1971 opening of the far more ambitious Walt Disney World, here in Orlando, especially as the word spread that it might not open in time. So, when Dick Nunis, the head of park operations, took control of the project, he was given carte blanche to do whatever it took to open the gates on Oct. 1st.

“There wasn’t anybody on that property who thought we were going to open on time,” said Dick Evans, one of the park’s managers on opening day. “And opening on time was critical to the company. We were at that point in debt up to our eyeballs. We’d borrowed close to $400 million to build phase one of Walt Disney World. And within a week of the time that he came on the property, the entire perspective changed. The energy level changed. He came in there like a tornado.”

Nunis, who recently died at the age of 91, fired contractors who got in the way, held meetings at 5 a.m. and put signs up all over the property that said the park would open on Oct. 1st. He made sure construction workers knew that their families were invited to the park a week before opening. He flew palm trees in on helicopters the night before the gates opened.

Not only did he understand the logistics of what it would take to hire thousands of employees, motivate construction workers and oversee the myriad details of opening a resort, he had worked closely with Walt Disney for a decade and knew how the company’s founder would have wanted it done.

Chapter 3 in our text deals with project management and the critical role of the project manager, Nunis, in this case. What does Disney World look like 62 years later? With 77,000 employees (called “cast members”) and six parks (Animal Kingdom, Epcot, Magic Kingdom, Typhoon Lagoon, Hollywood Studios, and Blizzard Beach), we see that the stakes in project management are high.

Classroom discussion questions:

  1. What are the responsibilities of a project manager?
  2. What are the 3 phases of the management of projects? (Hint: see page 62 in your text).

Guest Post: Reducing Waiting in Mass Transit

Prof. Howard Weiss shares his insights with our readers monthly.

A recent article in the Philadelphia Inquirer noted that SEPTA, the transit authority for Philadelphia and its suburbs, “is shopping for a contractor to build a new fare collection system with more convenient payment options.”

Work on the current SEPTA fare system began in 2011, and like many projects, the system was delivered two years late in 2016 and at nearly double its original $122 million budget. While the fare system is only 7 years old, it was almost obsolete when it was delivered because riders could not purchase their tickets or fare cards from home as they can for transit systems in several cities. Of course, purchasing at home or by app saves time when traveling by not having to wait in line at a kiosk to buy a ticket or put money on a fare card. It also reduces the probability of missing a train because you are stuck in line.

Several cities go a step further to improve transit times. You do not even need to go through a turnstile or wait for a bus driver to check your ticket. These cities use an honor system that relies on riders to purchase their tickets. This reduces boarding times and lines for busses and waiting times on the subways. Also, passengers can board busses using any door not just the front door which reduces the boarding time. There are controllers who may check tickets and if the rider does not have one the rider is fined – for example, $60 in Hamburg, Germany, $150 in Copenhagen, or $250 in Los Angeles.

Roads, Bridges and Tunnels
Thirty-five states have toll roads, bridges or tunnels. Many of these have been allowing drivers to use the web to upload money to their passes since their inception. In addition, some toll areas have express lanes for EZ pass drivers making collection times faster than driving through a toll booth. Some roadways have implemented toll by plate where rather than staffing a toll booth a picture is taken of a license plate and a bill is sent to the driver by mail if the car did not have a transponder for the system.

Roughly half of the toll collection locations in the U.S. collect tolls in only one direction rather than both directions. Obviously, this reduces waiting time in the toll-less direction.

Classroom discussion questions:
1. What is the downside to the toll collection agency using one-way tolling?

2. What are the disadvantages of operating a toll by plate system?

 

OM in the News: Why 99% of Big Projects Fail

Oxford economist Bent Flyvbjerg is an expert in the planning of “megaprojects,” huge efforts that require at least $1 billion of investment: bridges, tunnels, office towers, airports, telescopes, the Olympics. He’s spent decades studying the many ways megaprojects go wrong and the few ways to get them right. His new book How Big Things Get Done, is summarized in The Wall Street Journal (Feb. 4-5, 2023).

Spoiler alert! Big things get done very badly. They cost too much. They take too long. They fall too short of expectations too often. This is what Flyvbjerg calls the Iron Law of Megaprojects: “over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again.”

His work can be distilled into three pitiful numbers:

• 47.9% are delivered on budget. 
• 8.5% are delivered on budget and on time. 
• 0.5% are delivered on budget, on time and with the projected benefits.

The Guggenheim Museum in Bilboa Spain is a rare example of proper project planning

Flyvbjerg found that the complexity, novelty and difficulty of megaprojects heighten their risk and leave them vulnerable to extreme outcomes.  “You shouldn’t expect that they will go bad,” he says. “You should expect that quite a large percentage will go disastrously bad. Despite the fact that trillions of dollars had been spent around the world on such projects, nobody knew if they stayed on schedule or budget.”

Over the years, he compiled a list of 16,000 major infrastucture projects: skyscrapers, airports, museums, concert halls, nuclear reactors, roads and hydroelectric dams across 136 countries—not just megaprojects, but projects of all shapes and sizes.

What he found is that people struggle with projects for a simple reason: They’re people. Humans are optimistic by nature and underestimate how long it takes to complete future tasks. They ignore previous mishaps and delude themselves into believing this time will be different. Megaprojects are also plagued by politics as much as psychology.

What fascinates him more than the failings of the 99.5% is why the 0.5% succeed. Many projects are late because not enough time is spent planning, which is the most efficient way to shrink risk. You don’t start digging before you know exactly what you’re doing. Frank Gehry experimented with designs and tinkered with models in his studio for two years before starting to build the Spanish Guggenheim Museum. That meticulous planning was the reason the architectural wonder opened in 1997 on time and under its $100 million budget.

Classroom discussion questions:

  1. Chapter 3 deals with this subject in detail. Relate Flyvbjerg’s work to Figure 3.1.
  2. Tie PERT to his optimism in underestimating completion times?

OM in the News: Building a Hospital in Wuhan, China in 10 Days

Among the serious issues facing China as the coronavirus continues to spread, are the impact of the border, factory, and store closings, and shutdowns which are beginning to affect global supply chains from auto parts to iPhones (see our blog on Feb. 2, 2020). Facing criticism that the official response to the outbreak was delayed, the Chinese government has stepped up containment. One of its initiatives was to build two new hospitals in Wuhan –in 10 days! Since our Chapter 3 video case study, “Project Management at Arnold Palmer Hospital,” details that 60 month construction task (which included 13 months of planning), this OM project is worth discussing with your class.

Here is how The New York Times (Feb. 4, 2020) describes the task, which began on Jan. 24th:

Construction teams of 7,000 workers with armies of trucks and excavators dug and scraped around the clock. The city government completed a feat recalling the SARS epidemic of 2003, when Beijing built a hospital in a week. For China, the new Wuhan facility would also serve as a potent symbol of the government’s drive to do what needs to be done. Leaders pledged to build the 1,000-bed complex in 10 days and vowed that another new 1,600-bed hospital would be ready by Feb. 5.

Wuhan, a city of 11 million, has been eerily quiet since the authorities locked it down, preventing residents from leaving and severely limiting public transportation and private cars. But the roads around the hospital building site were packed with cement mixers, trucks and other construction vehicles. Migrant workers and suppliers of materials were roped in to build the complex. Workplace safety precautions included temperature checks to try to detect signs of coronavirus infections. By Feb. 3rd, ambulances begun transporting patients to the new hospital.

Classroom discussion qestions:

  1. How did this project differ from the construction of the Arnold Palmer Hospital in Orlando?
  2.  Could this project be replicated in the US? Why or why not?

 

Guest Post: Student Perspectives on the MyOMLab Project Management Simulation

Wende Huehn-Brown is Professor of Supply Chain Management at St. Petersburg College in Florida. She continues her review of our five OM simulations.

This post will focus on the Project Management simulation which uses a construction industry scenario. (My post last month looked at the forecasting simulation).The majority of students felt this simulation reflected how things likely worked for a project manager, even finding the pressure to perform engaging and realistic.

Students get immersed in planning needs and quickly learn decisions cannot be focused on profit entirely to achieve customer expectations. Making decisions and seeing the consequences of those decisions was viewed a valuable learning experience. The process of evaluating feedback is practical and several students reflected the need to better plan their life similarly!

Students often see many job opportunities in project management. This simulation gives them an appreciation for what they do, as well as how unforeseen circumstances beyond their ability to control are likely necessitating attention back to their critical path. One student even commented that he now understands his own need to be more flexible adjusting plans at home.

In this simulation, half of the students said they completed the simulation more than once as they felt motivated to better master the lesson. Students often mentioned their ‘light bulb’ moment was when they discovered they did not plan enough slack early in the project. Learning that trying to offset plans around natural disasters and other issues was much harder to fix later in the project.

About 30% of the students mentioned using Excel to plan and track progress. They found the simulation a great extension, building upon what they learned in the study plans and other MyOMLab assignments. While many found this virtual simulation challenging, the majority of the students felt enlightened and appreciated the opportunity to test their project management skills.

OM in the News: Will A.I. Take Over Project Management?

Managing a project well takes more than just making a great plan in advance and sticking to it. Interdependencies within a project and external changes make outcomes unpredictable. Estimates and many forecasts are at best intuition; at worst, guesses and handwaving. By 2030, 80% of the work of today’s project management (PM) discipline will be eliminated as artificial intelligence (AI) takes on traditional PM functions such as data collection, tracking and reporting, according to a new report by Gartner, Inc. “AI is going to revolutionize how program and portfolio management leaders leverage technology to support their business goals,” says Gartner’s VP.

Providers in today’s project software market, such as Microsoft Project, Primavera, and Trello, are behind in enabling a fully digital project management. The market will focus first on providing incremental user experience benefits to individual PM professionals, and later will help them to become better planners and managers. Gartner thinks that by 2023, technology providers focused on AI, virtual reality (VR) and digital platforms will disrupt the PM market. Generally, the goal is to avoid getting to the end of a project and being surprised.

Data collection, analysis and reporting are a large proportion of the PM discipline. AI will improve the outcomes of these tasks, including the ability to analyze data faster than humans and using those results to improve overall performance.  “Using conversational AI and chatbots, PM  leaders can begin to use their voices to query a PM software system and issue commands, rather than using their keyboard and mouse,” says the Gardner VP. “As AI begins to take root in the PM software market, those managers that choose to embrace the technology will see a reduction in the occurrence of unforeseen project issues and risks associated with human error.”

Classroom discussion questions:

  1. Will project managers become obsolete?
  2. How will AI software change the field of PM?

OM in the News: How to Make a Ship Bigger–Cut it in Half First

What’s a cruise company to do when it needs a bigger ship? Apparently, just saw it in half and add an extra 49 feet. Silversea Cruises began the lengthening process of its Silver Spirit ship this month as part of a $100 million renovation, USA Today reports (March 20, 2018).

The transformation is currently underway at Fincantieri Shipyard in Italy. This type of lengthening has never before been employed for the extension of a luxury cruise ship. An extension is much cheaper than ordering a brand new ship, which can cost upwards of $1 billion.

The project will create more space in public areas and will enhance Silver Spirit’s facilities, including adding increased space to the dining area, making room for additional outdoor seating, expanding the pool deck, a new spa, two new public spaces and a new aerobics area.

The massive expansion will require 500 workers who will spend approximately 450,000 hours in the job. The project will be complete in May, 2018. (Construction of the new section began 10 months ago). When finished, the Silver Spirit will measure 691 feet in length and have an increased capacity of 12%. About 846 tons of steel, 360,892 feet of cabling and 26,247 feet of piping will be put to use in the lengthening.

Classroom discussion questions:

  1. Compare the Silver Spirit to Royal Caribbean’s brand new Symphony of the Seas.
  2. Is this project more or less complex than building a ship from scratch? Why?

 

 

OM in the News: Shell Oil’s Artic Project Gamble

shell oil“In a windowless conference room in Anchorage,” writes BusinessWeek (Aug. 5-12, 2015), “a dozen Royal Dutch Shell employees report on the highest-profile oil project in the multinational’s vast global portfolio.” Warmed by mid-July temperatures, Arctic ice in the Chukchi Sea, northwest of the Alaskan mainland, is receding. Storms are easing; helicopter flights will soon resume. Underwater volcanoes are dormant. “That’s good news for us,” said Shell’s top Alaska executive.

Overhead, a bank of video monitors displays radar images of an armada of Shell vessels converging on a prospect called Burger J. Company geologists believe that beneath Burger J—70 miles offshore and 800 miles from the Anchorage command center—lie up to 15 billion barrels of oil. An additional 11 billion barrels are thought to be buried due east under the Beaufort Sea. All told, Arctic waters cover 13% of the world’s undiscovered petroleum–enough to supply the U.S. for more than a decade.

Surprise lurks in the Chukchi, whose frigid waters span from Alaska to Siberia. Logistical and legal obstacles have repeatedly delayed the Arctic initiative, on which Shell is spending more than $1 billion a year—more than $7 billion so far and counting. The single well in Chukchi that Shell aims to excavate this summer could be the most expensive on earth, and it hasn’t yielded its first barrel.

Activists have sued; judges have intervened. In 2010, work stopped when the Obama administration temporarily suspended offshore drilling throughout the U.S. Back in action in 2012, Shell suffered a maritime fiasco when ship engines conked out and a massive drill barge ran aground, requiring a Coast Guard rescue. Even against this challenging economic backdrop, Shell won’t postpone or downsize its Arctic dreams. The offshore Alaska field has the potential to be multiple times larger than the largest prospects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. But to put it mildly, Shell is assuming immense project management operational risks to drill in the Arctic.

Classroom discussion questions:

  1. Why are project management tools so critical to Shell?
  2. Why is Shell carrying out such a vast project?

OM in the News: Bertha–A Project Within a Project

Bertha, before drilling began in July 2013
Bertha, before drilling began in July 2013

The world’s biggest tunnel-boring machine, nicknamed Bertha — which hit a pipe and was damaged in mid-December after only 1,000 feet of excavation — is down there in the dark, awaiting what may well be the world’s biggest industrial rescue operation. Engineers around the world were closely watching Seattle’s tunnel even before Bertha ran into big trouble. The largest diameter tunnel-boring machine ever built — about five stories across, or 57.5 feet — Bertha was designed to dig under Seattle’s waterfront to allow the city to replace an aging viaduct. The project was given urgent priority after an earthquake in 2001 revealed instability in the elevated roadway, which was built in the 1950s. Tearing down the viaduct will also open up the city’s waterfront to new development.

On paper, the complex plan looks like a cross between a ballet and a monster-truck pull in its combination of delicate details and heavy-torque engineering. First, a rail-mounted crane will be inched up to the shaft’s edge. Then, a 2,000-ton piece of the boring machine’s front assembly will be raised up and laid down on the waterfront. There it will be repaired under the supervision of Japanese managers from the company that built it, reinforced with 200 or so tons of new steel and slowly lowered back down into the 120-foot-deep pit.

And then things really get tricky. “Project managers,” writes the New York Times (Aug. 2, 2014), “liken reattaching Bertha’s front end to putting a rebuilt, souped-up engine into the family Volvo.” If all goes according to schedule, tunnel work could resume next March, 16 months after tunneling was stopped. Until then, the rescue itself — the cost of which, along with delays, could surpass $125 million — has become its own drama within the broader saga of the tunnel.

Classroom discussion questions:

1. Why is this a project within a project?

2. Why is this project so closely watched?

Video Tip: Project Management at Arnold Palmer Hospital

From talking to OM professors around the country, I have found that the 7 video case studies dealing with Arnold Palmer Hospital for Women and Children are probably the most popular in the video series we created for you to show in class. The other videos cover Hard Rock, Frito-Lay, Wheeled Coach Ambulance, Regal Marine, and Darden Restaurants. (But wait till you see what we have in store for the next edition of our OM texts: an inside look at OM in an NBA team!)

If you teach Project Management (Ch.3) in your course, here is a great 8.5 minute video to show– with a case full of real data to assign. Some of the points to make with the building of  the new 11 story Arnold Palmer Hospital addition are: (1) planning took place for over a year before the first dirt was shoveled; (2) there were a thousand plus meetings  to allow doctors, nurses, patients, staff, and others have a say in what the new facility should look like; (3) a warehouse a mile away was turned into a mock floor of the hospital so visitors could walk in and evaluate the placement of beds, bathrooms, windows, and even electrical outlets; and (4) MS Project was used to manage the whole project.

This latter point is important. In today’s weak job market, I encourage students to take advantage of the copies of MS Project (full-blown, but time-limited) that Pearson-Prentice Hall  provides with our book. Included is a self-paced tutorial , which together with the printouts at the end of Ch.3, can help students master this useful software–and beef up their resumes at the same time. You might even give extra credit to a student who solves the case study using MS Project, as opposed to using Excel OM or POM for Windows, the other free programs that come with the text.

OM in the News: The Japanese Nuclear Cleanup–A 20 Year Project?

When the senior Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) engineer at Three Mile Island’s cleanup compares our 1979 explosion to  the Japanese  disaster, and says ours “was a walk in the park compared to what they have”, we know we are talking about a massive project. And the TMI cleanup took 14 years! “The cores are probably very similar, partially melted”‘ he adds, but in Japan 4 separate reactors are damaged, and fixing each one is complicated by the presence of its leaking neighbors.

Today’s New York Times (April 20,2011) describes the steps project managers must follow in the lengthy cleanup. But before they even begin, Tokyo Power has only 3 weeks to patch up smashed containment units before the rainy season starts and more contamination is washed into the environment. And the company has to watch that its small staff of skilled workers  does not absorb too much radiation doing so.

Here are the 6 main steps that may take  20 years to complete:

1. Clean up the water in the basements of the buildings.

2. Install new pumps to recirculate the water in the reactors (to end radioactive releases).

3. Decontaminate the walls and floors.

4. Rebuild the containments for units 1,2, and 4, so workers can defuel the reactors. (That step took 5 years at TMI, where no buildings had to be rebuilt).

5. Remove the wrecked fuel in the core. This involves creating new remote-controlled tools to cut through the metal and get to the material below.

6. Reprocess the radiated debris (or bury it as we did in shielded casks in Idaho).

This massive task makes our project management examples in Ch. 3 (like rebuilding Iraq) look trivial. We can only hope they first read the article “What Great Projects Have in Common” in MIT Sloan Review that we reviewed last week.

Discussion questions:

1. Why is this project more complex than rebuilding New Orleans after Katrina?

2. How do the Japanese benefit from TMI?